A Summer Pre-Sale Market That Never Really Heated Up

Source: MLA Canada

This summer has been unusually quiet in the pre-sale real estate market across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. July brought eight new project launches, right in line with seasonal averages, but the number of homes released fell well short. Just 572 pre-sale units hit the market, a full one-third below the typical July pace of 857 units.

Why the shortfall? Most of the projects were smaller-scale: wood-frame buildings or limited townhome releases. Only one of the eight launches was a concrete project. Developers have clearly been leaning toward more affordable, family-oriented products, with six of the projects landing in the Fraser Valley.
Sales absorption told the other half of the story. At 13%, July’s sold rate was less than half the five-year seasonal average of 29%. While that’s slightly better than the very soft spring months, it still shows that demand is selective, with only a handful of projects moving 25 to 30 homes in a month, a pace we used to see more often back in 2023 and early 2024.

Interest Rates, Tariffs, and Market Sentiment
At the end of July, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.75% for the third time in a row. It was meant to bring stability, but for many buyers, the relief feels minimal. Consumer confidence has ticked up slightly thanks to a resilient service sector and a stronger job market, yet big-picture concerns remain.

Trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. The U.S. raised tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% in July, up from 25%. While the CUSMA agreement still shields most exports, smaller businesses that rely on imported parts may feel the squeeze. The bigger question looms in June 2026, when CUSMA comes up for review, if it falters, the Bank of Canada warns tariffs could drag Canada’s GDP down by more than 1% by 2027.

Fall Outlook: Developers Waiting It Out
Looking ahead, the outlook for August is stark: zero new project launches are expected. That’s unusual, even in slow years, the region typically sees seven or more launches and 800+ units in August. Developers appear to be pressing pause, holding their inventory for September or later in the fall, when buyers are back from summer breaks and ready to refocus on housing decisions.

Meanwhile, the resale market hasn’t picked up the slack. Greater Vancouver sales edged up slightly in July, but Fraser Valley stayed flat. Both are still well below their 10-year averages, while inventory remains high: 40% above seasonal norms in Vancouver and 50% higher in the Valley. Prices dipped modestly from June.

What It All Means for Buyers and Sellers
In short, it’s a waiting game. Buyers are hesitant, developers are cautious, and sellers are navigating a crowded resale market. If change is coming, it’s likely to show up this fall when new projects finally launch and market attention shifts back from summer vacations.

For now, patience is the theme.

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