As December wraps up, the Canadian real estate market is ending 2025 much the way it spent the second half of the year: cautiously, quietly, and in wait-and-see mode.

Source: MLA Canada

Activity slowed across most segments, not because of a single shock, but due to a mix of economic uncertainty, affordability fatigue, and seasonal pause.

This feels less like a turning point and more like the market catching its breath.

The Economic Backdrop: Stable, but Not Convincing

Canada avoided a technical recession in 2025, posting better-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter. On the surface, that sounds reassuring. Dig a little deeper, though, and the picture becomes more nuanced.

Much of the growth was driven by declining imports rather than a meaningful rebound in consumer spending or business investment. In plain terms, people and companies are still cautious. Confidence has not fully returned, and that hesitation continues to spill over into housing decisions.

Presale Market: Very Few Moves, Very Little Urgency

The presale market slowed to a near standstill by November. Only three projects have been launched, representing just 346 units. Notably, none of them recorded meaningful sales.

Some of this slowdown is seasonal. December is rarely an active month for presales. Beyond seasonality, developers appear hesitant to launch into a market where buyers are taking their time and scrutinizing value more closely than they have in years.

Instead, attention has shifted toward purpose-built rental projects, which continue to move forward as long-term plays, supported by population growth and rental demand.

Rental Market: More Supply, More Balance

Purpose-built rental completions increased in 2025, adding meaningful supply to several markets. As a result, rent growth has cooled, and in some areas, tenants are finally seeing some negotiating room.

This does not signal weakness. Demand remains strong, but the rental market is now more balanced than during the peak pressure years.

Resale Market: Buyers Hold the Cards for Now

Resale activity across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley eased further heading into winter. Sales were down more than 15 percent year over year, while active listings remained elevated.

Prices have softened, but not collapsed. Instead, the market is adjusting gradually, with sellers becoming more realistic and buyers gaining leverage, especially those who are well-financed and not in a rush.

Looking Ahead to Early 2026

The early months of 2026 are expected to look much like the end of 2025.

Presale launches are likely to remain limited.
Rental demand should stay steady as leasing activity picks up in spring.
Resale inventory continues to give buyers choice and flexibility.

For buyers, this environment rewards patience and preparation. For sellers and developers, it is a period that calls for careful pricing and realistic expectations.

Key Takeaways

• The economy remains stable, but confidence is still fragile
• Presale activity slowed sharply, with few launches and minimal absorption
• Rental supply increased, easing upward pressure on rents
• Resale buyers currently have negotiating power due to higher inventory
• Early 2026 is shaping up as a continuation of this measured, transitional phase

To read the full report: CLICK HERE

To read more local news and updates, please check our BLOG PAGE
To view Geoff Jarman’s Listings, CLICK HERE

Tags: Real Estate Market Insights, Real Estate Market, Real Estate Market Canada, Real Estate Market BC, Geoff Jarman, top Burnaby realtor, realtor Geoff Jarman, Real Estate Market Geoff Jarman