Metro Vancouver Condo Construction Hits a 15-Year Low: CMHC
Condo Construction Across Metro Vancouver Fell 40% in the First Half of 2026, the Weakest Six Months Since 2011, While Unsold Inventory Builds in Burnaby
Source: BIV
Condo Starts Across Metro Vancouver Fell 40% in the First Half of 2026, the Weakest Six Months Since 2011, While Rental Construction Now Accounts for Roughly 60% of All Housing Starts
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released its Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report on September 10, and the Metro Vancouver numbers tell two stories at once. Condominium construction has slowed to its weakest pace in fifteen years. Purpose-built rental construction is running near record levels.
For anyone buying or selling a condo in Burnaby right now, the second story explains the market of the next two years. The first one explains the market after that.
|
Condo starts
Down 40%
First half 2026 vs 2025
|
Slowest since
2011
Weakest first half in 15 years
|
Rental share
About 60%
Under 20% a decade ago
|
Supply gap
5,000 to 7,000
Units per year still needed
|
Why builders switched to rental
CMHC attributes the condo slowdown to three pressures working together: weak presales, high construction costs, and a growing stock of finished units that have not sold. A project that cannot clear its presale threshold cannot get financing, and a project that cannot get financing does not break ground.
Rental carries less risk under current conditions, and policy has tilted that way too. Municipal incentives, rental-specific zoning, development charge relief, and federal financing programs have kept rental projects viable while condo projects stalled. Rental apartment starts rose roughly 36% over 2025. The pipeline of pending starts is high and heavily weighted toward rental, particularly inside the City of Vancouver, so rental completions should stay strong for several more years.
| Vancouver CMA, first half 2026 | Change |
|---|---|
| Condominium apartment starts | Down 40% year over year |
| Purpose-built rental apartment starts | Up about 36% year over year |
| Rental share of all housing starts | About 60%, versus under 20% in 2016 |
Burnaby is carrying a large share of the unsold inventory
CMHC singles out three places where completed and unsold condo units have piled up: Surrey, the City of Vancouver, and Burnaby. Inventory growth has been particularly strong in Burnaby.
That has a direct effect on what a buyer sees today. Finished units sitting unsold mean real choice, developer incentives, and room to negotiate that did not exist during the presale boom. It also means resale listings are competing against brand new inventory with a sales centre behind it, which raises the bar on pricing and presentation for anyone selling an older unit in the same area.
The part that matters three years out
Condominiums have long been the main source of new ownership housing in this region. Construction takes years, so starts today are completions in 2029 and 2030. CMHC’s concern is that weak starts now will mean fewer completions then, leaving future buyers competing for a thinner supply of ownership housing and putting renewed upward pressure on prices even while rental supply keeps expanding.
The region is not building its way out of the problem yet either. Vancouver’s supply gap held steady this year rather than narrowing, and the current pace of starts remains 5,000 to 7,000 units per year short of what would be needed to restore 2019 affordability levels by 2036.
- Buyers shopping new or nearly new Burnaby condos have more selection and more negotiating room than at any point in recent years.
- Sellers of older units are competing with finished inventory and developer incentives. Pricing to the actual competition matters more than it did in 2022.
- Renters should see continued relief as the rental pipeline delivers.
- Anyone thinking five years ahead is looking at a thin ownership pipeline behind the current wave of completions.
- CMHC produces projections, not guarantees. Interest rates, migration, and construction costs can all move the picture.
Regional data sets the backdrop, but the decision comes down to a specific building, a specific floor plan, and what else is on the market that week. Geoff Jarman sells across Burnaby and Vancouver. Start with the Burnaby neighbourhood guides or a free home evaluation.
Figures from the CMHC Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report, published September 10, 2026. Regional coverage via Business in Vancouver.
CMHC · Housing Supply · Condo Market · Burnaby Real Estate · Metro Vancouver · Market News · Presales
