A scarcity of available listings is contributing to the sustained high prices of houses in British Columbia. However, the provincial real estate association suggests that additional factors could lead to a potential 2% decrease in prices within this year.
A limited selection of listings has kept home prices rising despite challenging conditions for buyers.Source: Canadian Real Estate Association/Western Investor
“The BC housing market has shown remarkable resilience in 2023, with both home sales and prices holding their ground despite significantly higher interest rates.”
Brendon Ogmundson, the Chief Economist at the BC Real Estate Association
In its quarterly housing outlook published on August 29, the BCREA pointed out that due to extremely limited inventory, housing prices have continued to rise through much of the year, even as overall sales have fallen short compared to the previous year. This rise has been primarily driven by activity in the higher-priced markets, where buyers have remained engaged despite a decline in listings.
Greater Vancouver has witnessed an increase in sales both in terms of value and volume since May, with benchmark pricing experiencing rapid growth until April, after which it slowed down. The benchmark value for all MLS sales in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver area currently stands at $1.2 million, the same as a year ago.
BCREA forecasts that if the current trends persist, reduced buyer activity could result in an average resale house price decline of 2% to $976,600 province-wide.
Anticipating a return to more typical levels of activity as buyers adjust to the new interest rate environment and a new year commences, the outlook suggests that even though rate cuts may not occur until mid-2025, a normalization of the market is expected.
“As home sales return to their usual levels next year, we project prices to rise by 2.4%, reaching an annual average just above $1 million. However, there’s a potential for higher price growth given the housing supply situation,”
the report states.
Greater Vancouver is projected to maintain its status as the priciest market in the province in 2024, with an average resale price of $1.3 million. Meanwhile, the BC Northern region is anticipated to experience the most substantial value increase at 4.8%, resulting in an average sale price of $435,000. Kamloops and District closely follow with a value growth of 4.2%, reaching an average of $615,000.
BCREA’s analysis underscores the significance of supply in influencing pricing, highlighting the need not only for more listings but also a wider range of housing types, encompassing both resale and new properties.
Nevertheless, residential land sales have experienced a sharp decline this year, indicating sustained supply limitations in the foreseeable future, even as the province mandates construction targets for municipalities to meet housing demand.
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Once seen as a quieter backdrop to Vancouver’s urban vibrancy, Burnaby is undergoing a transformation. Inspired by the success of Metrotown, Burnaby is extending its community planning prowess to three burgeoning neighborhoods: Edmonds, Royal Oak, and Cascade Heights. Fueled by ambitious urban planning and community integration, the city is unmistakably steering toward urbanization. This growth trajectory has seized the attention of investors and homebuyers, as the region’s history points to a promising future.
The Metrotown Transformation and Downtown Plan Triumph
Propelled by the 2017 Downtown Plan, Metrotown experienced a remarkable surge in development and property values. The statistics underscore the success story: the average price per square foot for new concrete condos surged from $600 in 2014 to an impressive $1,250 today, with standout projects like Concord Metrotown setting new benchmarks above $1,400. By 2024, MLA Advisory’s analysis projects this figure to reach between $1,350 and $1,400, fueled by escalating land and construction costs. Moreover, the average presale unit price jumped from $450,000 in 2014 to a staggering $900,000 today. Despite units shrinking in size — in line with broader trends — from an average of 780-800 square feet in 2014 to around 750 square feet today, the premium on space has surged. Metrotown’s transformative journey, marked by soaring prices and flourishing development, offers a glimpse into the vast potential awaiting Edmonds, Royal Oak, and Cascade Heights as they position themselves to be Burnaby’s next thriving hubs for growth and investment.
Burnaby has unveiled ambitious community plans for Edmonds, Royal Oak, and Cascade Heights, signifying a bold vision for transformation. With these plans now in the public consultation phase, the community’s involvement is pivotal in shaping the trajectory of these neighborhoods. These master plans chart a course for the future of each area, encompassing housing, transportation, park spaces, business growth, and climate action.
Edmonds Town Centre, sprawling across 908 acres and Burnaby’s largest town center, boasts a storied history as the city’s first downtown and a vibrant hub. Burnaby envisions a ‘contemporary’ tri-node development for Edmonds: the Town Centre Node near Kingsway and Edmonds Street, potentially soaring over 50 stories; the Station Area Node around the Edmonds SkyTrain station, with building heights ranging from 20 to 40 stories; and the Southgate Village Node in the southeast, reaching heights of mid 40 stories. These nodes are projected to feature high-density residential and mixed-use buildings, while the Kingsway corridor is anticipated to host medium-density, mid-rise structures.
Royal Oak Urban Village, positioned between Metrotown and Edmonds town centers, encompasses 554 acres. Its primary nodes include the Station Area Node around the Royal Oak SkyTrain station and the Village Centre Node at Kingsway and Royal Oak Avenue. As Burnaby embraces the 15-minute city concept, this neighborhood is poised for small-scale services and businesses along its main thoroughfares. The plans for Royal Oak place a clear emphasis on non-profit housing, cultural inclusivity, and heritage preservation.
Cascade Heights, primarily composed of single and dual-family homes, is on the verge of its inaugural comprehensive community plan. The city envisions higher-density mid-rise buildings, particularly along Sunset Street, with potential heights of up to six stories. Prioritizing its proximity to Burnaby Hospital, the plans underscore medical offices, daycare spaces, and specialized housing for hospital staff.
Picture source: Canva
Fluid Community Plans and Investment Potential
While these community plans delineate boundaries and pivotal development zones, they remain adaptable. Much like Metrotown’s success story, Burnaby’s trajectory parallels, and industry stakeholders can anticipate noteworthy growth and investment opportunities in these burgeoning neighborhoods.
Investment Prospects in Burnaby’s Emerging Gems
By 2050, Greater Vancouver is projected to welcome a million new residents, with approximately one-tenth of this growth anticipated in Burnaby. With an expected addition of nearly 100,000 residents to its existing population of approximately 250,000, Burnaby presents an enticing investment landscape, particularly in the upcoming areas of Edmonds, Royal Oak, and Cascade Heights. The Metrotown model, from planning to realized residential and commercial projects, underscores the city’s growth potential and signals a similar path for the three upcoming neighborhoods. Ambitious transit developments, such as the Transport 2050 plan and the potential North Shore Connects SkyTrain route, are set to enhance accessibility and appeal in these neighborhoods. Taking inspiration from Metrotown and fortified by robust community plans, incorporating expansive housing, transit enhancements, and commercial initiatives, these three neighborhoods emerge as compelling options for homebuyers and investors alike. As Burnaby solidifies its reputation as one of Canada’s fastest-growing cities, Edmonds, Royal Oak, and Cascade Heights emerge as promising nuclei for development and investment within the region.
“Historically, Burnaby’s densification centered on Brentwood and Metrotown due to their services, amenities, and ambitious mall projects,” said Garde Macdonald, Director of Advisory at MLA Canada. “With housing supply at the forefront for all stakeholders, transit-based density becomes paramount; developers are already crafting new communities ready for growth and future investment.”
An Era of Promise for Burnaby
Metrotown’s transformation isn’t just a chapter of triumph; it’s a blueprint for the future of Royal Oak, Edmonds, and Cascade Heights. As these communities evolve, they grow more attractive to investors and residents. Metrotown’s journey demonstrated the fruitful partnership of growth and community, and these upcoming neighborhoods promise the same dynamic urban evolution.
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